Let me at the outset congratulate Yogendra Yadav , a psephologist who perfectly predicted the trend and seats in UP. Almost all other exit polls failed to catch the trend of SP sweeping the state of UP and getting around 225 seats in 402 seat assembly ! Aptly the Yadavs were the winners for the day - Akhilesh, Mulayam and Yogendra !
Looking at the results in all five states, the true losers in all five states was- BJP. As a party it was a complete failure in UP . Almost all of the major leaders in UP lost their assembly seats. BJP had a golden opportunity to swing voters in its favor due to anti-incumbency and people being fed up with Maya raj ! People in UP saw SP as the only alternative to unbearable Maya raj. Akhilesh Yadav was almost an obvious choice for people.. young, vibrant, talking their language and talking about progressive ideas, supported by all sections of society including the brahmins who have traditionally kept themselves away from SP and had joined hands with BSP in the previous elections. Brahmins who were traditional Congress voters in 60s-70s-80s... moved to the BJP in 90s... to BSP in first decade of 2000 and now are moving towards SP in 2012 !
SP has a traditional base of thakurs and muslims.. this year they could also garner support from dalits moving away from BSP and the upper class, educated, Brahmins, younger voters and women.
BJP has been reduced to a party of elderly , orthodox , traditional hindus with strong views about religion. They lack true leadership in UP , almost all leaders are in 60s-70s. Their views are orthodox which shy away many young voters. People have become fed up with their rhetoric of building Ram Temple in every election since 1992 . The UP voters are looking at a progressive party with young blood which could fight with the cadres of BSP .. The only alternative they find is with SP with a fresh invigorating leadership.
UP is fast becoming like TN of north with power shifting from one regional party (BSP)to other (SP) while national parties like BJP and Congress are mere spectators taking sides !
Loss in UP or failure to gain in UP should ring loud warning bells with in BJP to act swiftly or they would be reduced to null like Congress in UP.
BJP has barely been able to hold on to its seats in Uttara khand. However loss of Khanduri is a big blow to BJP leadership. BJP will have to take help of independents / BSP and others to create some coalition to remain in power. However Congress is the largest single party and may stake claim for the government !
BJP has clinched power in a small state of Goa ( which barely has two MPs) which primarily is on account of blatant corruption by the incumbents and clean image of the projected leadership of Manohar Parrikar, an IIT engineer who is dedicated social worker ! In fact , BJP has not played its traditional "Hindutva" card in Goa.. and field 10 catholic candidates .. 7 of whom won in predominantly christian areas.
In Manipur, BJP barely could show its presence as a national party by opening its account with one seat in 40 member assembly. Cong has comfortably won in Manipur for decades with almost no opposition.
Punjab assembly swings between Congress and Akalis... BJP with its coalition with SAD..does not have it identity as a individual party but has had strong alliance with Shiromani Akali Dal which by itself poses good opposition to Congress. BJP is always a junior partner in coalition and would never be able to have it own identity for staking claim of govt.
Performance of BJP is not just disappointing but abysmal to the extent that it poses a serious question mark to its stature as a national party. The picture in all these five assembly elections clearly shows how BJP is merely remaining for name sake in all these states. A serious setback is in UP where BJP must try to establish its identity again .. build a strong ground base.. provide a strong , young , progressive and able leadership like Vinay Katiyar. Until the next general election is 2014 or probably earlier .. BJP has a huge task of building its party and creating confidence among UP voters...otherwise BJP will be in worse state than the Congress is in UP.
2 comments:
Nicely written piece. My two pennies worth!
BJP's performance has not been as bad as it seems.
Assuming that what the expert analysts are saying about voter behaviour is true (I guess no reason to disagree) - Issues for Assembly elections remain high local and for Parliamentary polls at a larger national level. Congress performance is a validation of this theory. Going by their performance in the General Elections they should have romped home with atleast close to 100 seats. (Yes, there are lot of issues that cropped up in the interim, damaging their image - was 2G, Army Chief, Adarsh, ISRO, NREGA etc were consequential? I am not sure but maybe dented them)
If the above hypothesis are accepted as a strong possibility - BJP has a better chance in the 2014. Well on their way! They have stood 2nd only to SP/BSP (considered regional parties) in many places relegating Congress to much lower position. If the earlier hypothesis is valid, this is very encouraging. Increase in Voter share is encouraging too (though it did not translate to seats - Carefully analyze Punjab - Congress garnered better voter share - Thank god, we follow first past the post democracy)
Therefore for BJP it is matter of maintaining this performance and the public mood to see them better. A lot many factors could also help - Dr Swamy's cases against UPA Stalwarts! Iran-Israel issue and such stuff.
A message is loud and clear. BJP has nothing to worry in states where they have strong local leaders (though it is considered threatening to national level leaders). We can safely bet that performance of BJP squarely hinges on Strength and image of state leaders. Maj Gen Khanduri in 7 months delivered shockingly great performance. From a party written off, atleast BJP still have a chance today in Uttarakhand.
Similarly BSY in Karnataka needs to be rehabilitated and collectively work on improving his image.
Finally - in the pursuit of bettering the competition when it comes to Pseudo Secularism (guided predominantly by those 4 journo advisors - Read Arun Shourie's take on these journos on whose advise everything is being lost) BJP should not lose focus of their core-constituency - The urban, business, educated and Hindu Voters. All's not lost! CONgress lies low for sometime smarting from this blow to the dynasty and Time for BJP to consolidate now
Yes! Forgot to add Manipur looks extremely fishy! Not a question of sour grapes. Everything that happened for that populace was self defeating and yet this resounding victory sows a lot of doubts in my mind. A state subjected to extended days of economic blockade and untold hardships voting the perpetrators of that misery back...hmmmm lots of unanswered questions here
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