UP assembly elections 2012

The elections in Uttar-Pradesh are always interesting. There is always a chance of evolving new political alignment and equations ! I am eagerly looking forward to the counting day of March 6th.
I vividly remember the 3 days I spent in and around Banaras and Sarnath during the last elections of UP assembly in 2007. Most people were sure of the success of SP lead by Mulayam Singh, Amar Singh and Co. There was a strong clout of Amar Singh in the areas around Kashi / Sarnath. So much so that our Sahara-Jet Flight from Banaras to Delhi was delayed for an hour , just because of Amar Singh's arrival  from his nearby village was delayed !  Most of the contests were triangular: BSP, BJP and SP ! Cong was nowhere to be seen. There was a very strong undercurrent of BSP even in the bastions of BJP like Allahabad and Banaras. SP , though strong and incumbent , were the only formidable opponents of incoming BSP.  I however had a feeling of strong wave for Mayawati in almost all constituencies that I visited. People felt that strong urge to give Mayawati a chance after seeing SP and BJP earlier. Even the traditional voters of BJP/Cong and SP supported the BSP candidates for voting out SP from the state ! Most political observers were expecting BSP-BJP coalition or a hung assembly. However BSP swept the state keeping everyone including the political observers and psephologists owe struck.

This year I expect the contests in UP to be very strong , multi -cornered  and close ones. Though the main rivals seem to be BSP and SP , I feel that BJP will make significant gains. The Cong is expected only to gain as any addition would have to be counted as gain over the null they had in previous assembly.With Amar Singh not in SP camp , BJP might be able to play the game of kingmaker in UP. Again , a BSP-BJP coalition is very much in offing , if BSP fails to get a majority ! But then that was the prediction even before the last UP assembly election..a hung assembly with possible BSP-BJP coalition !
In-spite of anti-incumbency , BSP seems strong with its strong vote bank . The muslim vote tilting from SP to Congress may give some edge to the BJP candidates in Western UP. I seriously doubt if BJP would be in position to form its own govt in UP. The only option that remains is BSP, BSP-BJP coalition, or SP with all its partners supported by Congress .
My guess is BSP-BJP coalition , but the UP electorate is always good in surprising everyone including themselves !